Romney’s magical jobs forecast
Mitt Romney has a curious grasp on the facts, depending on what will help his chances more of being elected. So it was not too surprising that his initial forecast for employment growth was a laughably implausible 500,000 per month.
He has since ditched this estimate for a slightly less (but still) laughable estimate of 250,000 jobs per month (ht Menzie Chinn). This estimate is just that, an estimate, and it appears to have been pulled out of thin air based only on extrapolations from previous recession recoveries.
As Menzie Chinn helpfully reminds, it is higher than the average job creation over the last two presidential administrations (Clinton 196,700 per month, Bush 91,700 per month). Without an underlying economic model to back up Romney’s figures, there is no reason why it should even be taken seriously since there are few reasons why Romney’s policies would help the economy. Romney’s policies may even lead to another recession, which would reverse the progress made in the last 3 years.
If the last four years have shown anything, the debate on economics has moved far away from the knowledge gained over the past century and the same old debates come around over and over. With Romney’s employment projections and debates over his budget’s impossibility for deficit reduction and tax reductions, it seems that we have returned to debating the failed economic policies of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.