Gallup: Sorry About All Those “Romney’s Gonna Win” Polls, We Was Drunk Maybe?

by evanmcmurry

Hey, remember in fall of 2012 (#memories), when pollsters were telling anybody who would listen that landline-only polls were skewing toward Romney because younger and more liberal voters tended to favor cell-phones, and everybody thought they were cRaZee?

Ahem:

Gallup tilted to Romney by an average of 7.2 points in the final three weeks of the election, making it the least reliable poll of 2012.

Today Gallup is out with its official post-mortem of how it got things so wrong. It found that four areas most likely combined to result in the disparity between the polling firm’s final prediction of a 49-48 Romney popular vote win, and the actual result of a 51-47 Obama victory.

Those four areas were as follows: how they weighted likely voters, underrepresentation of the East and West coasts in geographical controls, underrepresentation of nonwhite voters based on how Gallup determined ethnic backgrounds of survey respondents, and issues in how it contacted landlines that resulted in an “older and more Republican” survey sample. [E.A.]

This is a prime example of ye olde “epistemic closure“: when you define everybody who disagrees with you as the liberal media and unworthy of listening to, the truth can be screamed at you and you still won’t hear it.

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