A Flea in the Fur of the Beast

“Death, fire, and burglary make all men equals.” —Dickens

Tag: barack obama poll

Joe Biden Would Like To Interrupt This Post To Talk About Medicare

by evanmcmurry

This morning’s polling generally finds the “bleeding stemmed”—to use the agreed-upon MSM phrase—from Obama’s poor debate performance two weeks ago. In sum, Romney saw an overall lift in his positives, and he’s polling closer to Obama, but Obama has regained a couple point lead in the national polls.

As always, national polls are—not meaningless, exactly, but not revelatory either. Breakdowns in the polling, though, can tell us more: Greg Sargeant has a whole slew of areas in which Romney showed no gain since the debate, especially on the question of which candidate voters think better represents the middle class, providing an opening for Obama in tomorrow’s debate to do nothing but bring up Romney’s 47% remarks.

But in one area, Obama has actually increased his lead since the polls two weeks ago:

Obama’s advantage on who is more trusted to handle Medicare has actually gone up, from 47-43 to 53-38. This was a major topic at both debates, and recall that Joe Biden made a strong appeal to voters to trust their “instincts” on who is better for the program. [Emphasis Sargeant’s]

Recall that before the first presidential debate, Romney was losing serious ground in states like Ohio and Florida, somewhat due to Paul Ryan’s Medicare-killing inclusion on the ticket; since the debate, however, Romney’s rebounded in both states, especially in Florida. If there’s an issue that will remind Floridians why they were leaning against the Romney/Ryan ticket, it’s Medicare, and it looks like Joe Biden got that across loud and clear; in fact, it’s entirely possible that that was Biden’s primary job going into the debate last Thursday, and he smiled so much because he nailed it. It would be nice and poetic if Joe Biden interrupted Romney’s rise as figuratively as he literally interrupted Paul Ryan, and on the same issue, no less.

Happy Friday, Everybody: Even Fox News Can’t Make Obama’s Nine Point Lead Go Away

by evanmcmurry

I’m not a mathtometrist. How many Voter ID bills does it take to erase a nine point lead?

Mitt Romney has had a tough couple of weeks on the campaign trail — and it shows in the latest Fox News poll. After a barrage of campaign ads, negative news coverage of his overseas trip and ongoing talk about his tax returns, Romney’s favorable rating and standing in the trial ballot have declined. As a result, President Obama has opened his biggest lead since Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee.

The president would take 49 percent of the vote compared to Romney’s 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup if the election were held today, the poll found. Last month, Obama had a four percentage-point edge of 45 percent to 41 percent. This marks the second time this year the president has had a lead outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.

(That’s from Fox News, which explains why it’s the “negative news coverage” of Romney’s overseas trip that caused his numbers to slip, and not simply Romney’s overseas trip.)

As Greg Sargeant points out, CNN also has Obama up considerably, and for the second week in a row*, which means it looks like Romney’s whole “You didn’t build that” line of attack amounted to squat. That doesn’t mean they’re not going to try again:

The Drudge Report wins this week’s Lee Atwater award for Distinguished Achievement in the Field of Blatant Misrepresentation. Here’s Obama’s original quote, in Colorado yesterday:

I said I believe in American workers, I believe in this American industry, and now the American auto industry has come roaring back and GM is number one again. So now I want to do the same thing with manufacturing jobs not just in the auto industry, but in every industry. I don’t want those jobs taking root in places like China. I want them taking root in places like Pueblo.

As Media Matters notes, Drudge’s headline on this was “Let’s Repeat Auto Bailout ‘With Every Industry’,” even though the context makes clear the president was saying he wants to replicate the auto bailouts’ssuccess with every industry. The RNC is now pushing this falsehood as well. (via)

Keep at it, guys. Maybe next week, Obama will be up by 11.

(Eternal poll caveats: national polls are meaningless, margin of error, etc.)

Americans Want A Small Government That Invests Heavily To Grow The Economy But Maintain Economic Freedom

by evanmcmurry

Via Greg Sargeant:

 The NBC/WSJ poll also finds that Romney holds the edge on who has good ideas for improving the economy, 43-36. But 80 percent say they’re more likely to vote for a candidate who will fight for fairness and encourage investments to grow the economy and strengthen the middle class, versus 68 percent who lean towards restoring “economic freedom” and “small government.” And Obama leads on who would fight for the middle class, 49-33.

Here’s the actual question:

Q22 Now, I’m going to read you some statements you could hear about government and the economy from candidates running for president. After I read each statement, please tell me if you would be more or less likely to vote for that candidate, or if it would make no difference in whether you would vote for that candidate. (IF MORE, THEN ASK:) And would you be much more likely or just somewhat more likely to vote for this candidate? The (first/next) one is a candidate for president who…

Will fight for balance and fairness and encourage the investments needed to grow our economy and strengthen the middle class

July 2012+ ……………………………….   80

Wants to restore the values of economic freedom, opportunity, and small government.

July 2012+ ……………………………….  68

So that means a minimum of 56% want both. Abortions for some, miniature American flags for others, I guess. Memo to future pollsters: it might be helpful to make respondents choose between these two options, so they don’t end up supporting Bamittrack ObRomney.